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Relying only on hubs for price discovery makes sense in the US where numerous producers are in competition. This is not the case in Europe where the main external sources of supply in 2011 were Russia (24%), Norway (19%), Algeria (9%) and Qatar (7%), giving those four countries and their state-owned company c.50% of the market. So, with European gas supply on the verge of being mostly spot-indexed, after implementation of the third energy package, the EU Commission should foster domestic shale production as a diversification to boost not only security of supply but also to finally achieve a fully functioning gas market.
By avoiding pushing too much volume, Gazprom/Russia and Statoil/Norway not only avoided a price war in 2011-2013 but managed to reset spot prices at a level that is acceptable to them.