Published Papers

The chapter presents a new approach to address energy policy and security based upon the ACEGES (Agent-based Computational Economics of the Global Energy System) model and the SPT (stochastic portfolio theory).

The ACEGES model is an agent-based model for exploratory energy policy by means of controlled computational experiments. The ACEGES model is designed to be the foundation for large custom-purpose simulations of the global energy system by modeling explicitly 216 countries.

As the world economy highly depends on crude oil, it is important to understand the dynamics of crude oil production and export capacity of major oil-exporting countries. Since crude oil resources are predominately located in the OPEC Middle East, these countries are expected to have significant leverage in the world crude oil markets by taking into account a range of uncertainties. In this study, we develop a scenario for crude oil export and production using the ACEGES model considering uncertainties in the resource limits, demand growth, production growth, and peak/decline point. The results indicate that the country-specific peak of both crude oil export and production comes in the early this century in the OPEC Middle East countries. On the other hand, they occupy most of the world export and production before and after the peak points. Consequently, these countries are expected to be the key group in the world crude oil markets. We also find that the gap between the world crude oil demand and production broadens over time, meaning that the acceleration of the development of ultra-deep-water oil, oil sands, and extra-heavy oil will be required if the world continuous to heavily rely on oil products.

Introduction

We all know that the wind is intermittent. As a rough measure, wind turbines can only operate when
wind speeds are between 4 metres per second and 24 metres per second. There is a further technical limit,
which need not concern us here, Betz's Law - the maximum theoretical efficiency of a wind turbine is
the ratio of the maximum power obtained from the wind to the total power available from the wind. This
ratio is 0.593, thus under Betz's Law wind turbines can never be more than 59.3% efficient.
Here, however, we focus on 'capacity factor' (sometimes termed 'load factor'). This is the ratio of the
actual output of a wind energy development (an array of wind turbines at a particular location, or locations
if a country is under consideration as is the case in this paper) to the installed capacity. We will be
considering actual wind energy performance in the UK, sub-divided for England, Scotland, Wales, and
Northern Ireland against claims that in general have been grossly exaggerated. The implications of the
actual performance against claims will finally be considered.

At the 1992 Rio Earth Summit, great emphasis was placed on energy efficiency in the Opening Session. That message, and indeed the subject of energy more generally, largely disappeared in the forty chapters and 600 pages of Agenda 21 that emerged from Rio. This situation has largely remained in subsequent UN deliberations. Closer focus on climate change, deforestation, and poverty has failed to produce significant benefits.

By 2010, world carbon dioxide emissions from the use of fossil fuels had risen over 46% from 1990 levels. Renewable energy projects have been pursued with scant regard for efficiency or costs to users. Still 2.7 billion people-some 40% of the World's population-rely overwhelmingly on traditional biomass; 1.5 billion others have no electricity supply; and a further 1 billion only have sporadic supply. Fossil fuels continue to provide nearly 85% of the World's primary energy, while renewable energy sources provide about 13%-of which traditional biomass accounts for 10.2% and all other renewable resources for only 2.8%. Of this 2.8%, hydropower accounts for 2.3%, wind power for 0.2%, and direct solar energy and geothermal for 0.1% each.

Not one of the eight Millennium Development Goals (MDG) produced in 2000 refers to energy. Then in 2005 UNDP, together with the World Bank and ESMAP, produced "Energy Services for the Millennium Development Goals", which pointed out that "failure to include energy considerations in national MDG strategies and development planning frameworks will severely limit the ability to achieve the MDGs." It also stated: "Increased energy efficiency-whether during generation/production, transport/ transmission, or end-use-can have wide-ranging benefits." In 2010, the UN Advisory Group on Energy and Climate Change (AGECC) report "Energy for a Sustainable Future" referred to improving energy access and strengthening energy efficiency as the "two priorities". AGECC's Chairman (and Head of UNIDO) stated that "a vast potential for energy efficiency improvements across the supply and delivery chain remains largely untapped." Also in 2010, the UN's General Assembly proclaimed 2012 the International Year for Sustainable Energy. Will there be a new, and more effective, focus on energy and efficiency in its provision and use?